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Fire OblationTier 1

at Hobby Lords Radiant Origins Store Championship

decks
2 (10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11 8-3-0
overall winrate
72.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
64.8% avg ELO +6.4 per match
expected value
55.2% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.6% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1368 · median 1368 · range 1254–1482 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1029 Q1 1159 Q3 1297 1482
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Firebloom Burn 10.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.2% -0.7
Fire Suzaku 10.0% 0
Wind Razorgale 10.0% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 44.3% -4.3
Wind Seiryuu 10.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.3% +14.8
Fire Aggro 5.0% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 67.7% +17.0
Fire Crux Mage 5.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.2% +14.7
Fire Slimes 5.0% 0
Fire Suited 5.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.9% +6.3
Water Aetherwing 5.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.5% +15.2
Water Genbu 5.0% 0
Water Luxem Assassin 5.0% 0
Water Tera Cleric 5.0% 0
Water Tera Mage 5.0% 0
Wind Allies 5.0% 0
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand +1.00 1 0 0
Golden Checkmate -1.00 0 1 0
Tune Up -1.00 0 1 0
Angelic Channeling +1.00 1 0 0
Staggering Strike +1.00 1 0 0
Heavenly Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Rictus Tiding -1.00 0 1 0
Expel the Departed +1.00 1 0 0
Topsy Decree +1.00 1 0 0
Folded Shadows +1.00 1 0 0
Prismspire Scepter -1.00 0 1 0
Devouring Malice -1.00 0 1 0
Cremation Ritual +1.00 1 0 0
Safeguard Amulet +1.00 1 0 0
Abnegation +1.00 1 0 0
Tariff Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Advent of the Stormcaller -1.00 0 1 0
Disenchant -1.00 0 1 0
Regal Inquisition -1.00 0 1 0
Annul Spell -1.00 0 1 0
Library Witch +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/51917/archetypes/Fire Oblation